The study of real exchange rate is important to analyze the competitiveness of a
country as well as to test the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory. Apart from other
implications, PPP is an important building block in monetary approach to the exchange rate and
exchange market pressure. The existence of PPP implies that domestic and international markets
for goods and foreign exchange are integrated and the monetary authorities need to be
careful in pursuing monetary policy.
As the linear models have been relatively less successful in validating the PPP
assumption, there is an increasing trend towards employing nonlinear methodologies to capture
the behavior of real exchange rate which, if found stationary, indicates the presence of PPP.
A recent survey on the topic can be found in Sarno (2005). Some other important
studies on the topic are Michael et al. (1997), Sarno (2000), Taylor et al. (2001), Sarno and Taylor (2002), Liew et al. (2004), Sarno (2005), Bahmani-Oskooee et al. (2007), and Zhou (2008).
Using monthly data, this study examines the behavior of Real Effective Exchanger
Rate (REER) for a group of five middle income countries, i.e., Malaysia, Pakistan, the
Philippines, Poland and Paraguay, and an oil-producing economy, Saudi Arabia. The data used
for estimation cover the period from 1982M1 to 2006M1. Finding the stationarity of REER,
as compared to other studies which employ bilateral exchange rate, reflects testing the
multi-country version of PPP. If REER is found to be stationary, it implies that PPP exists not
only with respect to a country's bilateral trading partner, but also in regard to its many
trading partners. To check the stationarity of REER, the study uses Kapetanious, Shin and
Snell's (KSS) methodology (Kapetanious et
al., 2003). This methodology is more powerful
in detecting unit root in a series than the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The
null hypothesis in KSS test is the presence of unit root against the alternative hypothesis
of nonlinear stationary Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) process. |