The consumer culture has been growing fast in India. Easy access to credit and loan facility
is one of the causes of the increase in the pace of the durable market growth. With retail
customers being the focus, banks and financial institutions are eager to provide housing finance,
credit cards, auto financing and so on. The list of players in auto financing is ever growing,
which includes Tata Finance, Ashok Leyland Finance, GE Countrywide, and Sundaram
Finance. Now banks, both public and private sector, have jumped into the auto loan segment
(see Appendix 1 for a brief commentary on auto financing market in India).
One concern, which is inherent, imminent, and perhaps the most important in
financing business, is how to handle the defaulting customers. Since it is always better if one can
identify a potential defaulter in advance, there exists a need for a mechanism to identify the
potential defaulters, i.e., a predicting model. The existing literature suggests various quantitative
and qualitative models to assess the default behavior; however, almost all of them are built
upon some broad financial indicators. These indicators include variables based on the credit
history, income and other tangible assets owned by the customer availing of a loan. Little emphasis
is laid on classification of the defaulters and non-defaulters based on their personality traits.
The present study is an attempt to fill this gap. This is done by developing a model, based on
the attitude and perception variables of the consumers, to help an MNC bank take decisions
while dispersing loans.
Research concerning the prediction of default behavior has been based on two broad
approaches: (1) Qualitative assessment of practical approaches used by managers; and
(2) Quantitative (statistical and mathematical) modeling (Ohlson, 1980). The
greatest development in recent years has been the use of quantitative models of default risk.
American banks have been aggressively using business analytics to ascertain default behavior
(Carrol and Zeltkevic, 2007). There have been studies which have used loan level data
(loan level data includes the amount of loan, duration and amount of EMI, credit history
and income levels) for the assessment of default behavior of the customers (Kalbfleisch and
Prentice, 1980; and Cox and Oakes, 1984). |