This paper analyzes the growth pattern of foodgrains production in West Bengal for the period of 197071 to 19992000. Goodness of fit has been tested for functional forms, viz., linear, exponential, log quadratic, parabolic, etc., both in the simple and kink (double) forms. The results show that in most of the districts, and the State as a whole, double kink linear form is the best fitted functional form. While the first trend break is always positive, the second one is generally negative. In the State, as a whole, both the positive and negative trendbreaks are significant, though there are districtwise variations. Performance during the 1990s is a matter of concern. Not only has there been a decline in the absolute growth in 199192, but since then, the relative growth rate has been declining over the decade in view of the linearity of the growth rate of foodgrains production in West Bengal.

After a long period of stagnation, West Bengal ushered significant improvement in the foodgrains production during the 1980s. As far as the growth rate of foodgrains productions is concerned, among the 17 Indian States, West Bengal was at the top during the 1980s (Saha and Swaminathan, 1994). The poor, far below the national average growth rate in the earlier decade indicates that like the other eastern region states, West Bengal remained outside the technological advancement of green revolution which was mainly centered around the wheat producing belt of the North Western states of India. During the 1980s, under the Left Front Government, some institutional and technological advancements took place in West Bengal, which seem to be the root cause of significant improvement in the 1980s though still it is debatable (Saha, 1996; Mukherjee and Mukhopadhyay, 1996). However, this remarkable growth rate was not sustained for a long time. A sudden fall in the 1990s has again been a matter of concern to researchers and policymakers.

Against this background, this paper is an attempt to explain the trend of foodgrains production in West Bengal during the period 1970-71 to 1999-2000. An attempt has also been made to introduce some new trend equations in the growth estimation procedure focusing more on the procedure of selecting the best.

Measurement of Growth Trend: An Econometric Study of Foodgrains Production in West Bengal, foodgrains production, log quadratic, parabolic, growth rate, growth estimation, green revolution, technological advancement.