The concepts and methods used in commodity and financial futures markets are adapted to structure "idea" futures markets. Instead of trading on future prices for commodities or financial instruments, an idea futures market trades on the likelihood of realization of a specific, identifiable, operational proposition at some future point in timean idea. Shares in an idea future are bought and sold using standard market methods. The price of a future reflects the aggregated information over all traders about the probability associated with the proposition. Prices rise or fall based upon changes in information perceived by market participants. Idea futures markets have strong applicability to strategic, tactical, and logistics decisions about the development, diffusion, and implementation of educational technology innovations.
Delineating, obtaining, and providing information for management decisions are crucial to the success of any educational technology innovation. Decision-makers must forecast answers to many questions about product and resource markets for educational technology innovations under conditions of uncertainty and risk. For instance:
Will customers purchase and adopt an innovation in educational technology?
Will developers deliver an educational technology product by an agreed deadline, and, if not, how far will the delivery slide beyond the original due date?
How do external factorspolitical, social, or economic trends and eventsaffect the market for an educational technology product?
Obtaining answers to these types of questions frequently involve costly surveys, focus groups, opinions of high profile, identified experts, and aggregation and integration of a wide variety of information that affects markets for educational technology products and services. Also, the methodologies applied to answer these questions require research expertise to manage and produce information which, in turn, demands technical analytical skill to consume and apply to decision-making. Moreover, such information frequently is so costly and complicated to obtain that it typically is collected once, not continuously, which might limit the quality and timeliness of decisions made. |