All is not well with
the global economy, for there appears to be no respite from
the storm blowing through the American financial markets.
One after the other, the iconic institutions of capitalism,
are falling aside forcing the Fed Reserve and the US Treasury
to bail them out in one way or the other. It is the classic
phenomenon of a financial crisis: failure of one bank inflicting
losses on the other bank that lent monies to it, which in
turn may fail to repay its debts, inflicting losses on its
lender and thus widening the circle of financial failures.
This sudden appearance of counterparty risk has simply frozen
the markets across the western countries. Despite the policy
makers of the US implementing even unconventional measures,
such as purchasing mortgage backed securities and launching
"Troubled Asset Relief Program" to ease banks from
their illiquid assets, no substantial improvement could be
noticed in the credit markets. With no bank courageous enough
to lend to other banks, deleveraging has left its scar on
the market: selling of assets in want of capital leads to
fall in prices to even lower levels, which means more and
more need for fresh capital. This has obviously further tightened
lending to real economyproducers and consumerswhich
means fall in investments by businesses and drop in demand.
This has further slowed down the growth of the economy. As
growth drops, businesses are sure to aim at cost-cutting exercises,
which means layoffs. The insecure consumers will further reduce
their spending. That is how the financial crisis is feared
to spread itself to the Main Streetthe real economy.
The morphing of the
financial hailstorm, which started about 18 months back as
the US subprime crisis, into economic slowdown is all but
over: consumers are cracking under the pressure of non-availability
of credit on the one hand, and steep fall in employment on
the other. To arrest the spread of economic downturn and its
intensity, the central banks and governments on either side
of the Atlantic have redoubled their efforts, with bolstering
from banks, by pumping in additional capital, providing greater
fiscal stimulus to jump-start the economy, and cut interest
rates further down. Yet, nothing substantial has been noticed
in terms of improvement in demand. Of course, policy moves
are known to yield results only after a time lag.
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