It would be a cliché to start with say
ing India lives in villages, and more
than 60% of its population depend on agriculture even after 60 odd years
of independence. The share of agriculture to total GDP over the years has
been sharply declining (Exhibit 1). However, the proportion of labor force
dependent on this sector has not seen similar proportional decline (Exhibits 2 and
3). There has been a remarkable achievement by Indian state in
agricultural growth, transforming the economy from a net importer of agricultural
products to a net exporter over the decades. Similar remarkable achievements can
also be seen in terms of food grain stock and addressing famine-like
situations. Post-Bengal famine, India has not seen a disaster of that magnitude in the
following decades that can be attributed to phenomenal sensibility and
achievement by the Indian state. However, these achievements have come with
a cost to the society. Besides, there is little room to be complacent about
such achievements when we look at a sustainable economic growth rate in
the coming decades.
Considering the general feeling among the economists as well as
the views of the Finance Minister, it would be impossible to sustain a GDP
growth rate of 9% and above without a phenomenal contribution from agriculture
sector. In other words, if agriculture fails to sustain a growth rate of 3 to 4% it
would be difficult for India to continue with 9% and above GDP growth rate on a
sustainable basis. It is not only the growth of the economy, but also benefits
of growth to a larger section of the society that matters. Looking at the
workforce of Indian economy, a substantial portion of it falls in semi-skilled
category and the largest proportion of it is in
the unskilled category. These set of workforce cannot be substantially
absorbed in services or manufacturing sectors. At the same time, agriculture
and allied sectors hold the maximum capacity to absorb this workforce.
Therefore, growth in agricultural sector would not only lead to higher GDP growth rate
but also have a distributive effect where a large part of its population would
be able to share the benefits of growth.
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