It is a tough task to reach the full
employment level of output in an
economy, and then equally tough to stay at that level. While achieving
full employment for all resources, especially the labor force, is the most
desirable status for any government, the repercussions of such an achievement
are often scary. In an economy where the labor force does not expand due to very
low population growth rate, full employment implies that the economy
has reached the pinnacle of output, and further growth of the national income
is not possible. Not only is it difficult to sustain such performance, but also
economic downslide becomes imminent with a slightest trigger. Such a
downturn leads to a low economic growth, or even a shrinking economy, rising
unemployment and deflation. Japanese economy has been passing through
such a phase since quite some time now.
An economy which emerged as the world's factory floor after the
World War II, due to its fast technological advances and cost-effective
production processes, has faced repeated and long phases of economic slowdown and
recession over the last two decades. Unfortunately, the phases of recovery are
very short-lived and various socioeconomic factors have contributed to the woes
of the third largest economy of the world.
A comparison of the composite growth rate of the 12 largest economies of
the world indicates that Japan has one of the lowest economic growth rates
(Figure 1). Even in more recent times, the quarterly growth rate of GDP
has ranged from -8.67% to +4.50% during the last six years (Figure 2). In
October 2010, industrial output shrunk by 2.0% as against the expected
shrinkage of 1.8%, and capacity utilization during the same period has been
-2.3%. This is coupled with increase in joblessness, with the unemployment
rate hovering around 5% and a general deflationary situation in the
economy during these years. These factors, along with a strong Japanese yen
have resulted in a severe damage to the overall business sentiment for
the 2010 Q4, as it stands projected down from +13.3 in Q3 to -8.0 in Q4.
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