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Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) signifies that all appropriate information is quickly
and fully assimilated in a security's market price, thereby guessing that an investor will obtain
an equilibrium rate of return. In other words, an investor in the market should not anticipate
an abnormal return. However, random walk theorists generally start with the premise that
the major security exchanges are good instances of efficient markets. A market where
consecutive price changes in individual securities are independent is, by definition, called a random
walk market (Fama, 1965). The random walk theory affirms that all information is replicated
in the current stock prices. Thus, any new information would also take little time to be
completely incorporated in the prices, and the market players, thus, would have little time to exploit
this new information to realize above normal profits.
Fama (1970) recognized three forms of market efficiency explicitly: the weak,
semi-strong and strong. Weak form of market efficiency says that current stock prices fully reflect all
the past information. Any attempt to forecast prices based on historical prices or information
is completely futile, as the prices follow random walk process. Semi-strong form expands
the idea of efficiency a little further and describes that current stock prices replicate all
the publicly available information. Prices adjust very quickly to such information, so the
above normal returns cannot be earned on a consistent basis. The strong form is a situation
where all the pertinent information, whether it is within the public domain or private domain,
will be reflected in the stock market price.
By explaining the event studies, one can measure how quickly stock prices respond
to different pieces of news, such as corporate earnings or dividend announcement, news of
a merger and takeover, or macroeconomic news. The aim of this paper is to observe the
stock price reaction to announcement of bonus issues and stock splits, and thereby examine
if Indian stock market is efficient in its semi-strong form or not. Over the past half
century, event studies have been employed in many research studies across the globe and
their superiority has been greatly improved by Dolley (1933), Fama et al. (1969), Brown and Warner (1985) and Gupta (2008). |