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The IUP Journal of Public Finance
Examining the Convergence in the Economic Growth of Indian States
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After crossing the Hindu growth rate in the 1990s, the Indian economy has been experiencing a consistent and increasing growth of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) both at current and constant prices. This growth in the national level GDP is resulting in a high growth rate of the State Domestic Product (SDP) of various states. However, it will also be interesting to find out whether there is a convergence in the economic growth of the Indian states or not. National level data indicates that the growth rate of the country is over 8% in the Eighth, Ninth and Tenth Five Years Plans, except some bad years and it is expected that the annual growth rate will go even further in the Eleventh Plan. But whether this growth is for all or it is just for some states—is the objective of the present study. This has been done by taking the SDP of 18 Indian states into consideration. The paper calculates the growth rate of all the 18 states for the period of 1980-81 to 2004-05. The entire period has been divided into two parts: 1980-81 to 1990-91 and 1991-92 to 2004-05. The period 1980-81 to 1990-91 can be referred to as the pre-Globalization, Liberalization, and Privatization (GLP), whereas the period 1991-92 to 2004-05 can be referred to as the post-GLP period. This bifurcation has been done for finding out the differences in the convergence of growth rate between pre- and post- GLP. In the pre-GLP period the national level as well as the state level growth rate in per capita GDP was less than that in the post-GLP period. So it will be interesting to see whether the increase in the annual growth rate of the country has led to the convergence or divergence in the growth rate of SDP.

 
 
 

In the Seventh Five-Year Plan, the Indian economy crossed the Hindu growth rate (the term coined by Raj Krishna to refer to the stagnated rate of growth of Indian GDP up to 1980 at 3.5%). After the economic and political instability of 1990-92, in the Eighth Plan, the economic reforms were implemented by the policy makers. This resulted in the high growth of the economy, and Indian economy became one of the highly growing economies of the world. The economic development taking place in India, especially after 1993-94, is a great matter of interest for the researchers as well as for the common people of India. Undoubtedly, there are indicators of growth like increase in per capita income and others. However, it will also be interesting to find out whether there is a convergence in the economic development of the Indian states or not. National level data indicates that the growth rate of the country is over 8% in the Eighth, Ninth and Tenth Five-Year Plans, except some bad years, and it is expected that the annual growth rate will go even further in Eleventh Plan. But whether this growth is for all or it is just for some states—is the objective of the present study. This has been done by taking into account the State Domestic Products (SDP) of 18 Indian states. We have calculated the growth rate of all the 18 states for the period of 1980-81 to 2004-05. The entire period has been divided into two parts: 1980-81 to 1990-91 and 1991-92 to 2004-05. The period 1980-81 to 1990-91 can be referred to as the pre- Globalization, Liberalization, and Privatization (GLP) period, whereas the period 1991-92 to 2004-05 can be referred to as the post-GLP period. This bifurcation has been done for finding out the differences in the convergence of growth rate between pre- and post-GLP. In the pre-GLP period the national level as well as the state level growth rate in per capita GDP was less than that in the post-GLP period. So it will be interesting to see whether the increase in the annual growth rate of the country has led to the convergence or divergence in the growth rate of SDP. This will be the basis for claiming that the growth rate achieved by the country, especially after GLP, has resulted in a positive way for all the states in India. This issue has been taken into account by many research papers (Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1995; GOI, 2001 and 2002; and Goyal, 2006) by following different approaches of analysis. Most of the researchers have concluded a difference in the rate of growth in the SDP of states resulting in the inequality of resource and opportunity distribution. It has further led to an unbalanced development of people in different states. The present study also, in line with these studies, traces the impact of GLP policies at disaggregating level.

 
 

Public Finance journal, Tax Buoyancy, Corporation Tax in Pre- and Post-Liberalization Periods, Economic Policy, Financial Reforms, Corporation Income Taxation, Economic Development, Gross Domestic Product, GDP, Linear Regression Equation, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Vector Error Correction Mechanism, Domestic Companies, Corporate Development.