The study X-rayed the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic variables during the period
1970-2001. This is against the backdrop of persistent exchange rate fluctuations and comatose response of
macroeconomic indices over the period under review. In order to achieve this, secondary data, which were
sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) and
other relevant publications, were used. To ensure uniformity, the raw data were converted into rates or ratios
and that formed an operational data(as presented in Table I). The data were analyzed using multiple
regression analysis, which is patterned after the Granger causality test. The study revealed that exchange
rate fluctuations are not significant factors influencing macroeconomic variables in Nigeria, except for the
Level of Government Influence on the Economy (LGIE). Again, while inflation and average interest rate
are significant factors influencing exchange rate fluctuations in Nigeria, external reserves and level of
government influence are not. Given these findings, a triple-policy approach of institutional, structural and
attitudinal changes were recommended. This, it is hoped, will enhance the value of the domestic currency
and ensure the stability of macroeconomic variables as well as improve the living standard of the people.
The Nigerian economy, since independence, has undergone multidirectional metamorphosis.
There have been days of joy, stagnation and crisis. In each of these days the various
governments had, at one time or the other, responded to the crises of the day in its own
way. While the crying days of an economy are associated with external economic
imbalance [of payment disequilibrium (deficit), huge external debts, rising imports with
corresponding export reduction, and so on] and internal imbalance [which includes rising
inflation, growing unemployment, reduced capacity utilization rate, increasing interest
rate and so on]. Obviously, no government can contend with these imbalances without
severe pressure and application of policy measures. Exchange rate policy is one of such
measures.
Successive Nigerian governments have adopted different exchange rate policies leading
to four major exchange rate regimes since 1970. Specifically, conventional pegs (1970-77),
crawling bands (1978-1985), independently floating (1986-93) and managed floating (1994-
2001) were applied with their variants by different governments. The first two regimes are
fixed exchange regime while the last two are floating exchange rate regime. Exchange rate
fluctuations are mainly associated with floating exchange regime, which covered the last two
regimes (from 1986-2001), while 1970-1985 witnessed little or no fluctuations.
Floating exchange rate regime was adopted in Nigeria with the introduction |