The distributional form of financial asset returns has important implications for the theoretical and
empirical analyses in economics and finance. It is now a well-established fact that financial return
distributions are empirically nonstationary, both in the weak and the strong sense. One first step to model
such nonstationarity is to assume that these return distributions retain their shape, but not their
localization or size (volatility ) as the classical Gaussian distributions do. In that case, one
needs also to pay attention to skewedness and kurtosis, in addition to localization and size. This modeling
requires special Zolotarev parametrizations of financial distributions, with four parameters, one for each
relevant distributional moment. Recently popular stable financial distributions are the Paretian scaling
distributions, which scale both in time T and frequency . For example, the volatility of the lognormal
financial price distribution, derived from the geometric Brownian asset return motion and used to model
Black-Scholes (1973) option pricing, scales according to T0.5. More generally, the volatility of the price
return distributions of Calvet and Fishers (2002) Multifractal Model for Asset Returns (MMAR) scales
according to
, where the Zolotarev stability exponent z measures the degree of the scaling, and
thus of the nonstationarity of the financial returns.
As we discussed in Los (2005a), the distributional form of financial asset returns has
important implications for the theoretical and empirical analyses in economics and
finance. For example, asset, portfolio and option pricing theories are typically based on the
shape of these distributions, which some researchers have tried to recover from financial
market prices. For example, Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996) and Melick and Thomas
(1997) did this for the options markets.
Stable distributions retain their shape over time, but not necessarily their size. They,
long after having been in fashion for a short-lived period in the 1960s are currently en
vogue for risk valuation, asset and option pricing, and portfolio management. They provide
much more realistic financial risk profiles, not only in the high frequency FX markets,
where, for example, excess kurtosis is found, but also in the persistent stock markets (Hsu,
Miller and Wichern, 1974; Mittnik and Rachev, 1993a and b; Chobanov et al., 1996;
McCulloch, 1996; Cont, Potters and Bouchaud, 1997; Gopikrishnan et al., 1998; Muller
et al., 1998; Los, 2000). |