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The IUP Journal of Applied Finance
Resilience of Indian Equity Versus Derivatives Markets: An Analysis Using VaR Approach
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This paper examines the resilience displayed by the spot indices S&P CNX Nifty, and two sectoral indices—CNX IT and Bank Nifty—of National Stock Exchange (NSE), one of the major stock exchanges in India, versus their respective futures contracts using Value-at-Risk (VaR) concept during dotcom and subprime mortgage crises over 2000-10 period. The study finds that losses based on one-day VaR at 95% confidence interval have been greater in the futures market than in their respective underlying spot markets, thereby implying that Indian derivatives market displays less resilience than its equity market.

 
 
 

Financial crises, whether in the form of banking collapses or stock market crashes or bursting of other financial assets bubbles or currency crises or sovereign defaults, have occurred sporadically virtually every decade and in various locations around the world ranging from Argentina to Sweden, Russia to Korea, UK to Indonesia, Greece to Dubai, and from Japan to the US. Although each such crisis has been unique in texture, yet each bears some resemblance to others. In particular, deregulation and globalization of capital flows without adequate market monitoring and regulatory oversight, unsustainable macroeconomic policies, relatively easy monetary policies at major financial centers, overheating of markets, excessive leveraging of debt, credit boom, miscalculation and mispricing of risk inherent in financial assets, off-balance sheet operations by banks, and imperfect understanding of new and complex financial instruments and inexperience in handling the same are some identifiable common causes of the crises. Financial crisis culminates in a vicious cycle of asset de-leveraging, price declines, investor redemptions, erosion in corporate profitability, bankruptcy of firms in distress, dwindling capital flows, huge withdrawals of capital leading to losses in equity market, pressure on national currencies, high interest rates, depleting currency reserves and downgrade in sovereign rating. The crisis usually has a ‘domino’ effect and spills over from the financial to the real sector through the various interlinkages in the economy. The reduced financing of the economy hinders capacity expansion, leading to supply side pressure, with the concomitant effects of rise in inflation rate, increasing demand for domestic liquidity, shrink in exports, increase in unemployment, slowing down of economic growth, thus plunging the economy into severe downturn. Due to messianic faith in the market forces and deregulation and integration of financial and real sectors among various world economies through trade and finance, such financial crisis, originating in a particular region, often spreads like wildfire across countries so that no economy is spared of the global financial contagion.

 
 
 

Applied Finance Journal, Resilience, Indian Equity, Versus Derivatives, Markets, An Analysis Using VaR Approach, Global Financial Meltdown and Recovery, Indian Accounting Association Research Foundation, Significance of the Study, Data Source and Research Methodology, VaR Concept, Methodology, Analysis and Findings.