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The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management
Modeling Systematic and Non-Systematic Risk in the UK Cross-Sectional Equities: Evidence of Regimes and Overstated Parametric Estimates
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The paper studies the behavior and interaction of systematic and idiosyncratic components of risk in a cross-section of UK stocks. No clear evidence is found of a trend in any component of total risk, but different ‘regimes’ in the behavior of each component of total risk, in their correlation patterns and thus in their contribution to aggregate risk, are documented. Comparing parametric and non-parametric estimates of residual risk, it is found that the former significantly overstates diversifiable risk, opposite to some previous findings for the US market, with the difference being very large, especially when an industry component is included..

 
 
 

Traditional asset pricing frameworks distinguish the determinants of the risk of assets as systematic components, i.e., those driven by common, explicit risk factors, and ‘residual’, ‘non-systematic’ or ‘idiosyncratic’ components. The idiosyncratic component can be thought of as the component of returns that is specific to each single security—and also as the residual component from a model that is by nature incomplete.

Within a broader stream of literature that looks to identify empirical pricing ‘anomalies’, several researchers have studied the behavior and role of the idiosyncratic component of stock returns volatility, often documenting aggregate or cross-sectional effects partly incompatible with the assumptions of the traditional models. For instance, the CAPM assumption that idiosyncratic risk should not be priced has been challenged both theoretically and empirically, although with mixed results. But from a modeling standpoint, the behavior of idiosyncratic risk and its interaction with other risk sources is important for a number of reasons. Firm-level volatility accounts for a large share—over 60% according to some estimates—of total volatility and volatility variation. In addition, asset holders and portfolio managers are exposed to idiosyncratic risk because of portfolio or wealth constraints, transaction costs, regulation, informational differences and explicit choice. As a result, improving the knowledge of the determinants of such risk will bear consequence on asset allocation decisions and from a risk-management standpoint improve the assessment of portfolio risk exposures, in terms of breaking down the overall risk into factor exposures and evaluating scenarios for the movement and correlation between them.

 
 
 

Financial Risk Management Journal, Modeling Systematic, Non-Systematic Risk, UK, Cross-Sectional Equities, Overstated Parametric Estimates.