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The IUP Journal of Applied Finance
Fiscal Response to Foreign Aid Inflows in Nigeria
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This paper analyzes the fiscal response of the government to aid inflows in Nigeria during the period 1961 to 2009. This is against the backdrop of the fact that no study has analyzed the peculiar fiscal response/behavior of the government in Nigeria vis-à-vis aid flow over time. Yet, the fiscal response of the government had significantly determined and shaped the growth path of the economy. The empirical analysis is anchored on the Heller type fiscal response modeling analytical framework and combines several procedures in modern econometric analysis/estimation techniques. The findings show that aid inflows had significant impact on the fiscal reactions of government in Nigeria: government expenditure, particularly capital (development) expenditure, increased in response to aid flows, tax efforts were relaxed, while domestic borrowing declined. Aid flows also provide free resources to increase recurrent (routine) spending, thus confirming the aid fungibility hypotheses. Since aid inflows cannot be permanently relied upon, it is advised that the government place a premium on improving its tax efforts as well as cut down recurrent expenditures.

 
 
 

Over the last half a century, foreign aid has emerged as a dominant strategy for alleviating poverty in the third world. Not coincidentally, during this time period, major international institutions such as the United Nations, World Bank and International Monetary Fund gained prominence in global economic affairs (Hjertholm and White, 2000). But despite increased aid inflows into the developing economies over these years, economic hardship persisted. Hence, there has been doubt regarding the usefulness of foreign aid inflows in fostering growth and development in these economies. Consequently, studies on foreign aid-growth nexus have surged. However, the empirical evidences from these studies have been mixed.

One of the shortcomings of the aid-growth literature is the common neglect of the fact that aid is given primarily to the government and therefore any macroeconomic impact will depend on the public sector fiscal response and/or behavior (McGillivray, 1994; Franco-Rodriguez et al., 1998; McGillivray and Morrissey, 2001; and Mavrotas, 2002). Consequently, only a limited number of studies explicitly recognized that aid inflows go to the public sector of recipient countries and, hence, the ultimate effect of aid on economic growth depends on how governments respond to aid flows. The flow of aid may encourage governments to become wasteful or provide an incentive to relax their tax efforts. In such instances, governments pursue macroeconomic policies which tend to favor larger budget deficits, thereby resulting in larger savings-investment gaps. Consequently, there is greater quest for more aid flows.

 
 
 

Applied Finance Journal, Fiscal Response, United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Response Models (FRM), Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Analytical Framework and Methodology, Foreign Aid Inflows, Nigeria.