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The IUP Journal of Applied Economics
Economic Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and the Demand for Broad Money in Egypt
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Despite the recent implementation of a number of economic reforms and structural adjustment programs to liberalize Egypt’s financial system, this study finds that a stable broad money demand function exists when proper account of asset substitution is taken and an appropriate estimation technique is employed. In particular, the use of measures for economic uncertainty and monetary uncertainty in the formulation of the demand for broad money provides strong evidence that the demand for broad money in Egypt is stable. Furthermore, the results show that both the measures of uncertainty have significant short-run and long-run effects on the demand for broad money in Egypt.

 
 
 

Since 1991, the Egyptian authorities have implemented a variety of economic reforms and structural adjustment programs in order to liberalize the country’s financial sector. The aim of those reforms was to eliminate the internal and external imbalances caused by years of high inflation rates, unsustainable fiscal deficits, a lack of competitiveness in global markets, and intolerable levels of external indebtedness. This move towards the use of greater marketbased signals as a means to manage the economy poses a number of challenges for the effective implementation of monetary policy. In particular, the liberalization and unification of the exchange rate regime, the ongoing commitment to the implementation of an inflationtargeting framework, and the continued liberalization of interest rates have substantially affected the environment in which monetary policy operates.1 These changes may have a large impact on the demand for broad money, because they could raise the opportunity cost of holding money, or provide some alternative assets to holding money. Furthermore, the existence of alternative assets might allow individuals to substitute between domestic and foreign currencies, as well as between monetary and physical assets.

A common objective in almost every study that analyzes the demand for money is to test for the stability of the demand for money, no matter which monetary aggregate is used.2 The existence of a stable money demand function forms the basis for formulating and implementing monetary policy.3 If the demand for money function is found to be unstable, then practitioners focus on the problem of omitted variables by showing that once these omitted variables are included, the stability of the money demand function can be attained.4 For instance, in testing for the stability of the demand for money function in the US, McNown and Wallace (1992) show that a practitioner must include the nominal effective exchange rate to take into account the possibility of currency substitution between the US and the rest of the world.

 
 
 

Applied Economics Journal, Economic Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, ARDL, Demand for Broad Money in Egypt.