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The IUP Journal of Applied Finance
An Analysis of Portfolio VaR: Variance-Covariance Approach
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With the growing exposure and linkages of Indian financial markets with the international financial markets, a rational investor (individual or institutional) would opt to reap the benefits of international investment opportunities by constructing a portfolio which would generate good returns with least risk. At the same time, the investor is unaware of the expected degree of return and risk inherent in the portfolio. This requires predicting the market risk of a portfolio using appropriate model. As such, the study attempts to calculate the portfolio market risk of domestic and international hypothetical portfolio using VaR-CoVaR (Variance-Covariance) model. The daily closing prices for a period ranging from 2000 to 2014 of Nifty Spot (NSR), Nifty Future (NFR), INRUSD currency pair Spot (USR) and INRUSD currency pair Future (UFR) are considered for building hypothetical domestic portfolio. The daily closing prices of BRICS nations, US and UK equity market indices from January 2000 to December 2014 have been considered for international portfolio. The investors are classified as risk-averse, risk-neutral and risk-takers. The study concludes that VaR-CoVaR model provides accurate results at 95% and 90% confidence intervals.

 
 
 

When we look from an investor viewpoint, he/she may not be willing to invest in individual assets. This may be due to the fact that the investor is unaware of the expected degree of return and risk borne by individual assets. Hence, the investor chooses to make investments in a portfolio. A portfolio can take any kind of the following combinations—only equities, only bonds, only forex, only commodities, equities and bonds, equities, bonds and forex, equities, bonds, forex and commodities, etc. A portfolio can also be of only domestic investments, only international investments or a combination of domestic and international investments. As the present study focuses only on financial markets, commodity market investment as a part of portfolio is not accounted for. The choice of any of the above portfolio is also based on the degree of risk a rational investor is ready to bear.

 
 
 

Applied Finance Journal, International Financial Markets, Nifty Future (NFR),INRUSD currency pair Spot (USR),INRUSD currency pair Future (UFR)