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The Analyst

April' 02
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Eruption of Mount Andersen
Corporate Debt Defaults : On the debt bed
Emerging Markets : Investors Beware
Rating Inadequacies : Knotty issues
RIL-RPL Merger : Making a giant leap
Japanese Economy : Land of the setting sun?
Disinvestments : Gathering speed
Budget 2003 : Consolidating reforms
Budget 2003 : A reforms perspective
Zee Telefilms : The show goes on
Indian IT Industry : The shifting business paradigm
US Business Cycles : Changing faces
Communalism : Are we secular?
Tata-VSNL : A surprise call
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Eruption of Mount Andersen

-- DG Prasuna, Team Analyst

The Enron-Andersen saga has brought to forefront many dormant problems of the auditing profession. It has raised questions about the credibility of the auditors and the auditing profession as a whole. The issues raised are not new; only they were left un-addressed. The apparent nonchalance of auditors to address these concerns is appalling. However, the sudden explosion of Andersen is compelling the profession to acknowledge the existence of problems and seek remedies. Conflicts of interests, systemic loopholes, and lax monitoring mechanism of accountants are some of the areas that have to be attended to. The eruption of Mount Andersen could prove to be a turning point in the history of auditing profession, an inflection point which triggered a tsunami that left in its wake destruction and an opportunity to reform.

Article Price : Rs.50

Corporate Debt Defaults : On the debt bed

--Amit Singh Sisodiya, Team Analyst

Just when the markets in the US thought that the Enron chapter was about to close, several new bankruptcy cases are piling up in the world's largest capital market.

What is common between Kmart, Global Crossing, WorldCom, and Qwest Communications? They all have been done in by colossus debt on their books. And barring the last, all have become bankrupt! Their premature demise which shocked the entire US debt market, and whose ripple effect was felt on other debt markets across the globe, is giving rise to the fear that many more debt-ridden companies could also follow the suit. Increasing cases of bankruptcies and debt defaults has led to credit rating agencies actively downgrading several companies' creditworthiness.

Article Price : Rs.50

Emerging Markets : Investors Beware

--DG Prasuna, Team Analyst

Emerging economies have become an integral part of the world market in spite of their obvious drawbacks. They were considered good investment diversifiers for mutual funds and pension funds. But the test to qualify for investment has become tougher now with the California Public Employees' Retirement System's new country review that decides the investability of emerging markets.

Article Price : Rs.50

Rating Inadequacies : Knotty issues

--  Debasis Mallik, Team Analyst

Allegations have been raised against the rating agencies that they have been particularly slow in predicting Enron's ill fate. While the rating agencies defend themselves saying they have performed their duties, critics argue that they were lax.

Article Price : Rs.50

RIL-RPL Merger : Making a giant leap

--  N Janardhan Rao, Team Analyst

It seems that the Reliance Group never fails to surprise the market. This time it is in the news for the gargantuan merger announcement between two of its group companies, RIL and RPL. The proposed entity is all set to redefine the rules of business as far as India is concerned.

Article Price : Rs.50

Japanese Economy : Land of the setting sun?

--  N Janardhan Rao and Debasis Mallik, Team Analysts

It is now more than a decade that Japan, the world's second largest economy, is deprived of economic sunshine. All endeavors to restore the brightness of the pre-1990s have ended in utter disappointment.

Article Price : Rs.50

Disinvestments : Gathering speed

--  D Satish, Team Analyst

After a period of lull, the process of disinvestments has gathered momentum. This has made the Government more confident and set a realistic but ambitious target for the next year.

With the divestment of IBP and VSNL, the process of disinvestments seems to be catching up. Though the Government would fall short of the disinvestments target for the fiscal 2001-2002 these divestments have boosted the spirit of the process considerably. The Government has indicated that Maruti Udyog Limited along with five other PSUs would be disinvested by the end of March 2002. Overall, it has been a good fiscal for disinvestments activity by any standards. In the previous two fiscals, the disinvestments were a fraction of the set targets.

Article Price : Rs.50

Budget 2003 : Consolidating reforms

--  Y Chandra Sekhar, Team Analyst

The budget proposals have raised serious concerns for business sector. Though revenue generation has been emphasized, the budget has also put in place the right dose of reform measures to carry out the second generation of reforms.Yashwant Sinha presented the Union Budget 2002-03 at a critical time when the global economy lead by US is showing signs of recovery. On the other hand, India is confronting political problems following the controversy over temple construction. On an equal footing, the economy has witnessed a steady decline in growth rates both in agriculture and industrial sectors. Despite these odds, the finance minister tried to strike a delicate balance between growth and reforms.

Article Price : Rs.50

Budget 2003 : A reforms perspective

The strategy of the budget was to lay emphasis on agriculture and food economy reforms, enhance public and private investment in infrastructure and deepen structural reforms and regenerate industrial growth. However, the budget did not receive a favorable response from the market and unlike the previous year's budget, has been extensively criticized by all as being growth un-friendly says Indranil Pan, Associate Vice-President, Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Ltd., Mumbai.

Article Price : Rs.50

Zee Telefilms : The show goes on

--  Amit Singh Sisodiya, Team Analyst

The stars of Zee have never been bright after its break-up with Rupert Murdoch's Star Network three years ago. India's first private satellite channel has been losing out to its rivals like Star and Sony in recent times. The big question, therefore, is: Will its new moves redeem its media mogul's status, it once enjoyed?

Article Price : Rs.50

Indian IT Industry : The shifting business paradigm

--  DG Prasuna, Team Analyst

Various socio-economic and political factors have brought the high profile Indian IT industry to the cross-roads. Keeping in tune with the global trends, Indian IT companies have slowed down but there are more fundamental issues than what meets the eye in the first glance. A renewed approach to their business model is called for.

US Business Cycles : Changing faces

--  A V Vedpuriswar, Dean, Naveen Das,
Dean,and Rahul Sheoran, Research Associate,
IBSs, Hyderabad

An examination of the pattern of shifts in the US business cycles indicates that adjustments to downturn have been very fast in the past. An attempt to draw a meaningful prediction for the present downturn appears difficult.

The business cycle is an up-n- down movement of business activity. It consists of alternating periods of recessions and booms. Some recessions can be real bad. A good example is the Great Depression in the US. It started in 1929 after a stock market crash. By 1933, the real GDP had fallen by 30 percent and unemployment had increased to 25 percent of the labor force. The most recent slowdown cannot technically be described as recession as the GDP contracted (_1.3 percent) only in the third quarter of 2001. To call it a recession, we need at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth.  

Article Price : Rs.50

Communalism : Are we secular?

--  Dr. Ajit Kumar, Faculty, IU

For most people in socialist and secular India, communalism is becoming a bane, resulting a loss of life and is also affecting the economy.

Religion helps maintain discipline, social norms and moral values in a society. The misuse of religion results in communal riots. It has become a sad and a common phenomenon in India. Communal peace has become fragile.

Article Price : Rs.50

Tata-VSNL : A surprise call

--  CSV Ratna, Team Analyst

The Tata Group has slowly but surely expanded its telecom business. With the acquisition of VSNL, it has emerged as the country's largest provider of integrated telecom solutions.

It has been gradually and quietly expanding its telecom business in the past six years, but the Tata Group has suddenly switched modeit has become surprisingly aggressive. And the change in their approach has come at the right time. The Tatas' strategy in the telecom sector has evolved from a circumstantial response to changes in environment to a more proactive resolve towards a new vision.

Article Price : Rs.50

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