After a rapid downfall in 2008, the Indian capital markets
performed very well in 2009. After starting off in a whimper
on the back of weak global cues and the Satyam fiasco,
the Sensex, in 2009, surprised investors by gaining 80% over the
previous year, Actually, the bellwether index doubled itself towards the end
of the year from its March bottom level of 8160. The
gravity-defying move by the equity markets was largely driven by improving
economic conditions and ample liquidity available in the system. At the
dawn of the New Year, a sense of excitement, mixed with
apprehensions, prevailed in the air. Will the good run of the sensex continue in
2010? Actually, in 2009, all sectors did not participate in the upward
rally of the stock market. Hence, the performance in 2010 will depend
on the sector wise performance in 2009. This article presents
the performance of various sectors in 2009 and the macro elements
which the investors have to observe in the current year to make
their investment decisions.
Broadly, the major sectors involved in stock market activity
are: auto, banking, capital goods, consumer durables, FMCG,
healthcare, information technology, metal, oil and gas, power and realty
stocks. The BSE maintains sectoral indices for these segments.
The performance of the equity market is explained with the help of
these sectoral indices. The BSE sensitive index (30 Scrips) (Sensex)
increased from 9,903.46 points on 1-1-2009 to 17,464.81 on 31-12-2009.
This means that the Sensex increased by 76.35% during 2009. The
lower limit of sensex during 2009 was 8, 047.17 (recorded on March
6, 2009) and upper limit was 17,464.81 points (recorded on the
last trading day of 2009). The average monthly returns from the
Sensex was 5.49% and the monthly compounded returns was 5.07%
during the year. FMCG sector was the worst performer and the metals
sector was the best performer during this period. While the
FMCG, healthcare, realty, oil and gas and power indices
underperformed, the banking, consumer durables, IT, auto and metal indices
over performed during 2009, compared to the Sensex.
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