With about 70% of the land holdings already smaller than 10 Ha in size, agriculture is already close to supporting as many livelihoods as it can, and as the population increases from 1000 millions to 1600 millions, most of the additional numbers will have to seek their livelihood from the industry. Industry requires good quality infrastructurewater, electricity and roads, particularly if it is to be globally competitive. As of now, water is not even considered "infrastructure". However, a situation is emerging where water could be a limiting factor for industrial growth. Storage and delivery of water on a reliable basis requires similar capital intensive works as required for generation and delivery of electricity, and inclusion of water in the "infrastructure" could help in a change in approach towards supplying water needs of the industry. During the past 20 years or so, a class has emerged that is opposed to any infrastructure development, particularly in India. What initially started as a movement against large dams, in the name of protecting the environment and those displaced by dams, has now degenerated into an opposition to any infrastructure work, as is seen from the opposition to not only the dams, but also Kalpasar a dam in the ocean; the Golden quadrilateral highway project; Sethusamudram shipping canal, etc. This organized opposition to infrastructure has to be identified for what it is, and countered effectively, if India is to remain in the race with other developing economies. Therefore, in addition to all other constraints for development of the economy, constraints which have already been extensively analyzed, "organized opposition to infrastructure" should also be identified as an emerging constraint, and addressed squarely.
There are many reports, by international agencies, which suggest that India has the potential to emerge as a significant economic power in the next 20 years. It is easy to get carried away by the euphoria such assessments tend to generate. But some hard questions need to be asked, e.g., can India become an economy to reckon with even if we continue with BAU (Business As Usual)?; the population is predicted to stabilize only at 1600 millions, how are we going to provide livelihood opportunities for all these people; and what are the constraints in doing so.
Although the share of agriculture in India's GDP is down to 25%, agriculture continues to be a dominating factor in the economy. Mere prediction for a poor monsoon is often sufficient to create turbulence in the markets. In any case, agriculture provides livelihood to a very large proportion of the population, estimated to be close to 60%. However, the total amount of arable land being limited, there is a limit as to how many people can earn livelihood through agriculture. And India is fast approaching that limit, is almost there. |
