Let
me take the opportunity to wish all of you a very fulfilling
2008. The first issue of our journal once again contains
papers relating to varied risk type. The first paper,
"Integrating Market and Credit Risk in Stochastic
Portfolio Optimization" by José Luiz Barros
Fernandes, José Renato Haas Ornelas and Marcelo
Yoshio Takami, has two main objectives. The first is to
propose a measure to integrate the market and credit risk.
They define a way to convert the credit risk into market
risk, and then define an integrated risk measure. Based
on this integrated measure, they also define an Adjusted
Sharpe Index as a metric to compare various portfolios
in the surface frontier in terms of financial efficiency.
Second, evaluation of several methodologies of estimating
efficient portfolios, under the perspective of a global
long-term investor, incorporating estimation risk and
also evaluating the effect of credit risk in the model
selection. Their results support the use of the Michaud's
resampling methodology as it offers better results in
terms of financial efficiency, allocation stability and
diversification.
The
results are robust for different levels of credit risk constraints.
Their empirical approach can be generalized into two ways.
First, any other risk factor that generates a premium in
terms of expected return can be incorporated in the analysis
as an additional dimension. Thus, not only the credit risk
but also the other risks would be converted into market
risk. Second, other measures of market and credit risk other
than volatility and expected default can be used. For instance,
VaR-based measures of risk may be used, although the numerical
methods to generate the efficient surface frontier would
be more complex.
The
second paper, "Performance Evaluation of Indian Commercial
Banks in the Prompt Corrective Action Framework: An Assurance
Region Approach" by Ram Pratap Sinha, seeks to integrate
the ratio approach adopted by the Reserve Bank of India
with the Assurance Region based measure of technical efficiency
to find out a composite Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)
based ranking in respect of 28 observed commercial banks
for 2002-03 to 2004-05. After the onset of banking sector
reform in India, the Reserve Bank of India adopted a system
of Prompt Corrective Action with various trigger points
and mandatory and discretionary responses by the supervising
authority depending on the three major indicators of banking
sector health: Net NPA, CRAR and Return on Assets. The results
show that the observed private sector commercial banks have
higher mean technical efficiency score compared to the observed
public sector commercial banks. Out of the 28 observed commercial
banks which were considered for the study, six were found
to be efficient. A study of the technical efficiency scores
across ownership groups reveals that the observed private
sector banks have higher mean technical efficiency scores
compared to their public sector counterparts. Finally, most
of the observed commercial banks exhibit decreasing returns
to scale for the period under observation.
The
next paper, "Return and Risk Analysis of Indian Information
Technology Sector Stocks" by R Prabahar, J Dhinakaran
and Punithavathy Pandian, attempts to study the return and
risk element of investing in the shares of Indian Information
Technology Industry. Return and risk are inseparable in
most of the investments, and it is important to determine
how much risk is appropriate to attain the required rate
of return from investing in any stock that an investor is
considering. Even though every investment involves risk,
it is higher in equity investments. Every investor in stock
market puts his money in the anticipation of return in terms
of price appreciation and dividend with minimized risk.
The risk is composed of systematic risk (market risk) and
unsystematic risk (company-specific). Systematic risk includes
currency, inflation, foreign investment, political and regulatory,
interest rate, economic, and terrorist risks. Even bad weather
risk can affect certain market sectors such as retailers,
agriculture, forest products, insurance, airlines and tourism.
Systematic risk can not be eliminated by diversification
within a given market. It captures the reaction of individual
stocks or portfolios to general market swings. In the case
of unsystematic risk the factors are specific, unique and
related to the particular industry or company.
The
authors find that the daily average mean returns of the
six companies studied in this paper were lower than the
daily mean return of the indices. The volatilities of the
stock returns over the study period were much higher than
that of the indices. The `b' values of the securities
show that except CMC and Moser Baer, the other four securities
were very aggressive. Finally, the unsystematic risk of
the IT stocks were much higher than the systematic risk.
The IT stocks may not be a safe bet for a risk averse investor,
but the reward may be hefty for a risk taker in the short
run than in the long run.
"Impact
of Futures on Spillovers in the UK Stock Market" by
Athanasios Koulakiotis, Constantinos Katrakilidis, Dionysios
Chionis and Nicholas Papasyriopoulos analyzes the impact
of information contained in various futures contracts on
volatility spillovers between markets. In particular, the
paper analyzes spillover effects between foreign cross-listings
in tougher, similar and more lax regulatory environments
with respect to the relevant domestic indices (FTSE100),
and also with the home portfolios of cross-listed equities
in the UK. The authors find that futures variables had a
significant impact on volatility spillovers between markets.
Using
Euro-denominated returns of European cross-listed shares
trading in fourteen European stock exchanges, they show
how currency, exchange rates, Treasury Bill, and Treasury
Bond futures shocks significantly affected spillovers for
the UK equity portfolios. For controlling the conditional
and next period's impact of shocks, these could have a significant
impact on the magnitude of stock return spillovers. In contrast,
volatility persistence was generally found to be low and
insignificant.
-
Nupur Hetamsaria
Consulting
Editor.
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