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The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management
Focus

Let me take the opportunity to wish all of you a very fulfilling 2008. The first issue of our journal once again contains papers relating to varied risk type. The first paper, "Integrating Market and Credit Risk in Stochastic Portfolio Optimization" by José Luiz Barros Fernandes, José Renato Haas Ornelas and Marcelo Yoshio Takami, has two main objectives. The first is to propose a measure to integrate the market and credit risk. They define a way to convert the credit risk into market risk, and then define an integrated risk measure. Based on this integrated measure, they also define an Adjusted Sharpe Index as a metric to compare various portfolios in the surface frontier in terms of financial efficiency. Second, evaluation of several methodologies of estimating efficient portfolios, under the perspective of a global long-term investor, incorporating estimation risk and also evaluating the effect of credit risk in the model selection. Their results support the use of the Michaud's resampling methodology as it offers better results in terms of financial efficiency, allocation stability and diversification.

The results are robust for different levels of credit risk constraints. Their empirical approach can be generalized into two ways. First, any other risk factor that generates a premium in terms of expected return can be incorporated in the analysis as an additional dimension. Thus, not only the credit risk but also the other risks would be converted into market risk. Second, other measures of market and credit risk other than volatility and expected default can be used. For instance, VaR-based measures of risk may be used, although the numerical methods to generate the efficient surface frontier would be more complex.

The second paper, "Performance Evaluation of Indian Commercial Banks in the Prompt Corrective Action Framework: An Assurance Region Approach" by Ram Pratap Sinha, seeks to integrate the ratio approach adopted by the Reserve Bank of India with the Assurance Region based measure of technical efficiency to find out a composite Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based ranking in respect of 28 observed commercial banks for 2002-03 to 2004-05. After the onset of banking sector reform in India, the Reserve Bank of India adopted a system of Prompt Corrective Action with various trigger points and mandatory and discretionary responses by the supervising authority depending on the three major indicators of banking sector health: Net NPA, CRAR and Return on Assets. The results show that the observed private sector commercial banks have higher mean technical efficiency score compared to the observed public sector commercial banks. Out of the 28 observed commercial banks which were considered for the study, six were found to be efficient. A study of the technical efficiency scores across ownership groups reveals that the observed private sector banks have higher mean technical efficiency scores compared to their public sector counterparts. Finally, most of the observed commercial banks exhibit decreasing returns to scale for the period under observation.

The next paper, "Return and Risk Analysis of Indian Information Technology Sector Stocks" by R Prabahar, J Dhinakaran and Punithavathy Pandian, attempts to study the return and risk element of investing in the shares of Indian Information Technology Industry. Return and risk are inseparable in most of the investments, and it is important to determine how much risk is appropriate to attain the required rate of return from investing in any stock that an investor is considering. Even though every investment involves risk, it is higher in equity investments. Every investor in stock market puts his money in the anticipation of return in terms of price appreciation and dividend with minimized risk. The risk is composed of systematic risk (market risk) and unsystematic risk (company-specific). Systematic risk includes currency, inflation, foreign investment, political and regulatory, interest rate, economic, and terrorist risks. Even bad weather risk can affect certain market sectors such as retailers, agriculture, forest products, insurance, airlines and tourism. Systematic risk can not be eliminated by diversification within a given market. It captures the reaction of individual stocks or portfolios to general market swings. In the case of unsystematic risk the factors are specific, unique and related to the particular industry or company.

The authors find that the daily average mean returns of the six companies studied in this paper were lower than the daily mean return of the indices. The volatilities of the stock returns over the study period were much higher than that of the indices. The `b' values of the securities show that except CMC and Moser Baer, the other four securities were very aggressive. Finally, the unsystematic risk of the IT stocks were much higher than the systematic risk. The IT stocks may not be a safe bet for a risk averse investor, but the reward may be hefty for a risk taker in the short run than in the long run.

"Impact of Futures on Spillovers in the UK Stock Market" by Athanasios Koulakiotis, Constantinos Katrakilidis, Dionysios Chionis and Nicholas Papasyriopoulos analyzes the impact of information contained in various futures contracts on volatility spillovers between markets. In particular, the paper analyzes spillover effects between foreign cross-listings in tougher, similar and more lax regulatory environments with respect to the relevant domestic indices (FTSE100), and also with the home portfolios of cross-listed equities in the UK. The authors find that futures variables had a significant impact on volatility spillovers between markets.

Using Euro-denominated returns of European cross-listed shares trading in fourteen European stock exchanges, they show how currency, exchange rates, Treasury Bill, and Treasury Bond futures shocks significantly affected spillovers for the UK equity portfolios. For controlling the conditional and next period's impact of shocks, these could have a significant impact on the magnitude of stock return spillovers. In contrast, volatility persistence was generally found to be low and insignificant.

- Nupur Hetamsaria
Consulting Editor.

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Automated Teller Machines (ATMs): The Changing Face of Banking in India

Bank Management
Information and communication technology has changed the way in which banks provide services to its customers. These days the customers are able to perform their routine banking transactions without even entering the bank premises. ATM is one such development in recent years, which provides remote banking services all over the world, including India. This paper analyzes the development of this self-service banking in India based on the secondary data.

The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is playing a very important role in the progress and advancement in almost all walks of life. The deregulated environment has provided an opportunity to restructure the means and methods of delivery of services in many areas, including the banking sector. The ICT has been a focused issue in the past two decades in Indian banking. In fact, ICTs are enabling the banks to change the way in which they are functioning. Improved customer service has become very important for the very survival and growth of banking sector in the reforms era. The technological advancements, deregulations, and intense competition due to the entry of private sector and foreign banks have altered the face of banking from one of mere intermediation to one of provider of quick, efficient and customer-friendly services. With the introduction and adoption of ICT in the banking sector, the customers are fast moving away from the traditional branch banking system to the convenient and comfort of virtual banking. The most important virtual banking services are phone banking, mobile banking, Internet banking and ATM banking. These electronic channels have enhanced the delivery of banking services accurately and efficiently to the customers. The ATMs are an important part of a bank’s alternative channel to reach the customers, to showcase products and services and to create brand awareness. This is reflected in the increase in the number of ATMs all over the world. ATM is one of the most widely used remote banking services all over the world, including India. This paper analyzes the growth of ATMs of different bank groups in India.
International Scenario

If ATMs are largely available over geographically dispersed areas, the benefit from using an ATM will increase as customers will be able to access their bank accounts from any geographic location. This would imply that the value of an ATM network increases with the number of available ATM locations, and the value of a bank network to a customer will be determined in part by the final network size of the banking system. The statistical information on the growth of branches and ATM network in select countries.

Indian Scenario

The financial services industry in India has witnessed a phenomenal growth, diversification and specialization since the initiation of financial sector reforms in 1991. Greater customer orientation is the only way to retain customer loyalty and withstand competition in the liberalized world. In a market-driven strategy of development, customer preference is of paramount importance in any economy. Gone are the days when customers used to come to the doorsteps of banks. Now the banks are required to chase the customers; only those banks which are customercentric and extremely focused on the needs of their clients can succeed in their business today.

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Financial Risk Management