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The IUP Journal of Financial Economics
Unexpected Correlations in Fama-MacBeth Methodology Outcomes
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This paper examines the Fama-MacBeth test of asset pricing models through its application to the Fama and French model. The Fama and French 25 sorted portfolios, 30 industrial portfolios and their combination have been used. The data of monthly observations span over the period 1963-2008. Fama-MacBeth results reject the validity of the Fama and French model, but the presence of unexpected correlation casts doubt on these results.

 
 
 

Since the early 1960s, several models have been developed to explain the expected returns of stocks. Following the seminal work by Markowitz (1952) on efficient portfolio selection, Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965) developed the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Under this approach, the expected return of an asset is linearly related to the market risk premium through a measure of systematic risk called the asset's beta. Differences in expected returns between different securities should be totally explained by the difference in their systematic risk or beta.

As opposed to the CAPM which models the expected return of a stock as linearly dependent on a single factor (the market), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (Ross, 1976) allows the expected return of a security to be a function of several (macro) factors. Stock's expected return is thus a function of the sensitivity of the stock's return to several factors which are assumed to reflect systematic risk.

In the 1980s, some empirical analyses found the existence of some anomalies with regard to the CAPM. Among these anomalies, Banz (1981) found that the average returns on small (large) companies are systematically higher (lower) than predicted by the CAPM leading to the existence of a `size effect'. Furthermore, Rosenberg et al. (1985) found a significantly positive relationship between average return and book-to-market ratios. Building on these observations, Fama and French (1992) proposed their well-known three-factor model. Expected returns are modeled as a linear function of the risk premium on the market, the premium related to the size of the company and its book-to-market ratio.

 
 
 

Financial Economics Journal, Fama-MacBeth Methodology, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Time Series Regressions, Cochrane Methodology, Market Risk Loadings, Fama-MacBeth Procedure, Industry Portfolios, Fama and Asset Pricing Model, French Asset Pricing Model.