World oil consumption has started moving up and has received new impetus through a combination of higher oil and gas prices, and through the very fast economic growth of China, India and other heavily populated-fast industrializing countries. Enabling this quantum leap in exploration and development is impossible without much higher, and sustained prices, says Founder Member, Asian Chapter, International Association of Energy Economists, Former Expert - Policy and Programming, Division A - Policy, DGXVII - Energy, European Commission.

secent headline data from the OECD's IEA and the US' EIA on world production and regional inventory stockbuild, together with `traditional' reports of apparent `overproduction' by OPEC members beyond their December 2003 export quota targets are presented by some analysts, as offering a prospect for oil prices sliding well below €26/barrel (US$33/barrel), perhaps by early summer 2004. Optimism regarding non-OPEC supply growth is, however, muted at this time, with the only major upturn to counter non-OPEC production decline by its three largest OECD producers (US, Norway, UK), coming in the shape of Baku-Turkey pipeline deliveries from Caspian region producers. Deliveries are slated to build about 2.5 million barrels/day (Mbd) through 2004. World demand remains strong, particularly in the emerging industrial superpowers of China and India.