This study addresses the determinants of the public approval rating of the US President for the period 1949-2004. Since the study seeks to identify determinants of the approval rating over the long run, annual data have been used. This model consists of variables reflecting inflation, unemployment rate, and dummy variables for wars and scandals. In this study, the Presidential approval rating is found to be negatively affected by both inflation and the unemployment rate as well as by scandals. The Gulf War had a significant positive influence on the approval ratings, whereas the influence of all other US wars over this period, including the war in Iraq, was consistently negatively significant.
The
US public's approval rating of its President has received
considerable attention in the scholarly literature [e.g.,
Mueller (1973), Monroe (1984), Brody (1991), Edwards (1991;
1998), Clarke and Stewart (1994), Campbell and Mann (1996),
King (1999), Erikson et al. (2000), Jones (2001),
Burden and Mughan (2003), Cohen (2003), Abramowitz (2004),
Canes-Wrone (2004), Yaffee (2004), and Cebula (2005)].
In
fact, Presidential approval ratings are potentially important
in a variety of practical ways. For example, if the approval
rating of the incumbent President is either very high or
very low, then presumably the prospects of re-election for
that President is likely to be enhanced or diminished, respectively
[Campbell and Mann (1996), Jones (2001), Abromovitz (2004),
and Cebula (2005)]. The correlation between incumbent votes
and Presidential popularity just prior to the election was
0.79 (Fox and Philips, 2003). Of course, given the complexity
of the voting decision and the myriad ways in which the
voters or the consumer-voters express themselves on public
issues, public figures, and public policies [Tiebout (1956);
Buchanan and Tullock (1962); Tullock (1967, 1971); and Copeland
and Laband (2002)], this linkage may be somewhat tenuous.
In addition, depending on the degree of higher public approval
rating that the incumbent President has, there will be political
"coattails" for other candidates to ride on (especially
those contesting for national office) with the same political
party affiliation, once the election day arrives. Furthermore,
a higher public approval rating for the incumbent President
is likely to increase the inflow of political campaign contributions
for the President and/or for the candidates for office who
have the same political party affiliation. |
