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The
boom in commodities in the in-ternational market can be ex-plained
primarily by demand and supply and various other factors.
On the demand side, the dominant factor has of course been
the demand from China and India. The world economy is slated
to grow at 4%. High growth rates in the Asian economies particularly
in China and India and economic revival in the EU and Japan
have increased the demand for basic agricultural products
(cereals, pulses, sugar and cotton), energy sources (crude
oil, ethanol) and scarce resources such as metals and minerals.
On the other hand, supply or increase in production has remained
tight due to supply constraints or disruptions in production.
In fact, the commodity boom is expected to perpetuate for
another 15-20 years on account of inherent growth processes
in the world economy.
With
regard to India, according to the Central Statistical Organization,
the real GDP growth in 2004-05 was 7.5%. The economy continued
the good run and registered an 8.1% growth in 2005-06. The
agricultural sector saw a growth of 2.3%; industry recorded
a growth of 8% while the services sector grew by 10.1%. The
growth in the economy has fueled the demand for raw materials
and commodities.
Prices
are being driven by both domestic and global influences. Commodities
such as crude oil, steel, aluminum, copper, bullion, soya,
sugar, coffee, etc. which are global in nature have their
prices being driven by global developments. |