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With
the Sensex touching an all-time high and with the hope that
India's GDP will not be less than 8% in the coming year, next
only to China's scorching 10%, one would be of the impression
that India is on the right path in the growth trajectory.
But, is it really on the right track? There is an unseen development
that is quietly building up, which most people seem not to
observe. That is, with a steeply sliding downhill performance
on the crucial agricultural sector, India is quietly coasting
along a 7.5% GDP. What does this show? Is this a healthy development?
Should India arrest this mismatch between the slide in the
agricultural sector and the ascent of the non-agricultural
sector, resulting in a climb up of the GDP before this mismatch
becomes too late to correct?
When
we talk of agriculture, the mental picture one perceives is
that of the countryside, farmer suicides, parched fields,
failed crops, price crash of farm produce, etc. Despite this
dismal picture, the Sensex has been rising and more and more
Indian industrialists and Indian companies are joining the
"billionaire club". However, the fact remains that
there is a disproportionate growth in the agricultural sector
compared to the non-agricultural sectors, like manufacturing
and services. Further, despite the primary agricultural sector
being the laggard, the country could march forward on the
GDP front. Some facts are positively disturbing, but equally
startling. Between 1970-71 and 1980-81, agriculture contributed
3.43% to the GDP, which fell to 2.97% between 1990-91 and
1999-2000 (13.4% drop, 0.45% per annum), and the fact is,
despite this decline, during the same period GDP climbed from
4.38% to 6.37% (45.4% increase, 4.8% per annum) and by the
end of last century had almost reached 7.5% (7.14% precisely). |
