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The IUP Journal of Behavioral Finance :
Rational Actors and Balancing Markets: A Game-Theoretic Model
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Guided by Game theory, this study develops a model to explain the influence of the balancing market on trading strategies in energy markets—how the prices on the balancing market drive power trading. The study derives explicit solutions for a specific model in which the error distributions and pricing functions are given. The most interesting conclusions are the unique existence of an equilibrium and that no participant acts contrary to the aggregate market (either all market participants buy or sell additional power) and properly normalized, all strategies are equal. Furthermore, the aggregate ‘strategic’ power is a stochastic process varying around its own variance.

 
 
 

Industrialized countries need a steady, reliable and efficient electricity supply and an understanding of its mechanism. Modeling the electricity market as a forward market with a single not storable good (see Allaz, 1992; Allaz and Vila, 1993; and Green and Newbery, 1992) is important to accomplish this. Such markets are typically analyzed with either supply-function-equilibria (e.g., refer to Klemperer and Meyer, 1989; Green and Newbery, 1992; Green, 1996; Weber and Overbye, 1999; and Berry et al., 1999a), with Cournot-models (e.g., Cardell et al., 1997; Hogan, 1997; Hobbs et al., 2000; and Boisseleau et al., 2004) or Stackelberg models (e.g., Wolf and Smeers, 1997; and Chen et al., 2004). The former is a better fit to the technical realization of many electricity markets where bids are given as supply or cost functions. Introduction to energy market models can be found in Meibom et al. (2003), Boisseleau et al. (2004), Yao et al. (2004) and Sanin (2005).

The German balancing market follows, like its spot market (EEX), day-ahead auctions. In contrast to the spot market (designed as a uniform-priced double auction), the balancing market is a day-ahead, multi-unit, multi-part, pay-as-bid procurement auction (Swider and Weber, 2007). Each prequalified (see RWE, 2006) participant can place two price offers—one for reserving capacity and the other for the case of its actual usage— which are then used by the Transmission System Operator (TSO) to balance the market. Since the number of prequalified power generators, which provide the necessary energy capacity (and required energy), is quite low—e.g., Swider and Weber (2000) report only five such active participants in the zone of Vattenfall Europe in Germany—we concentrate on those participants who are passively affected by the balancing market1. Appendix A.1 provides more details about the German balancing market and the difference we make between active and passive players.

 
 
 

Behavioral Finance Journal, Rational Actors, Balancing Markets, Game-Theoretic Model, Transmission System Operator , TSO, Power Markets, British Electricity Market, Stackelberg Models, German Balancing Market, Normal Distribution Function, Nash Equilibrium.