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The IUP Journal of Applied Finance :
Monthly Effects in Stock Returns: New Evidence from the Indian Stock Market
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The efficiency of the capital market has raised various debatable issues all over the world. Numerous studies give evidence that the capital markets are informationally efficient and hence, cannot outperform the market consistently on the basis of price change predictions. However, some researchers have also brought into light seasonal effects/calendar anomalies in the developed markets. This paper investigates one of such anomalies (monthly effects) in an emerging capital market (Indian). For this, the daily price index (S&P CNX NIFTY) data have been collected and analyzed for the period from January 1998 to August 2005 by segmenting it into three sets, i.e., 199801, 200205, and 199805. The result of this study shows that the turn of the month effect and semimonthly effect are prevalent in the Indian stock market.

 
 
 

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is one of the grossly researched areas of financial economics. The concept of an efficient capital market was evolved in the 1960s by Eugene Fama. In his doctoral dissertation, Eugene Fama (1965) argued that in an active market, where well informed and rational investors are trading, securities will be correctly priced and reflect all available information. In an efficient market, an investor can never outperform the market consistently over a period of time, irrespective of whatever trading strategy is adopted by him/her.

Fama (1970) has categorized market efficiency into three different forms: weak, semi-strong and strong form, based on the information set that is fully reflected in the security prices. In the weak form of efficiency, security prices fully reflect the information content of past prices and volumes, whereas in the semi-strong form of market efficiency, the trading strategy, based on fundamental analysis, fails to yield systematic positive return. Under the strong form of EMH, the security prices fully reflect all available information, public as well as private.Numerous studies and tests have been conducted on all forms of EMH (Turan and Bodla, 2004). However, some of the recent studies indicated departure from market efficiency. Fama and French (1988) and Lo and Mackinlay (1988) gave evidence against the weak market efficiency. Some cross-sectional differences among stock returns were found to occur with regularity. These regularities in the stock returns have been termed as anomalies. An investigation to these anomalies can be used to frame investment strategy capable to outperform a naive buy and hold strategy.

 
 
 

Applied Finance Journal, Indian Stock Markets, Efficient Market Hypothesis, EMH, National Stock Exchange, NSE, ANOVA Analysis, Financial Economics, Indian Equity Market, Market Efficiency, Asian Equity Markets, Institutional Investors, Composite Index.