Home About IUP Magazines Journals Books Amicus Archives
     
A Guided Tour | Recommend | Links | Subscriber Services | Feedback | Subscribe Online
 
The IUP Journal of Applied Finance :
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Over the past few years, Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become a standard measure of market risk embraced by banks, trading firms, mutual funds and others, including even the non-financial firms. But any risk measure is useful and reliable only insofar as it can be verified for its accuracy. This paper evaluates the accuracy of VaR in estimating the risk in equity investment in India. For this purpose, the study uses the daily data for 30 securities comprising BSE-Sensex and two major stock indices-BSE-Sensex and NSE Nifty for the period January 2006 to February 2007 and portfolio-normal method (parametric approach to VaR calculation) for calculation of VaR. The hypothesis regarding the accuracy of VaR estimates was tested using the chi-square test. The results reveal that VaR estimate does not accurately measure the risk in equity investment in India as VaR overestimates the loss in 24 out of 30 securities.

 
 
 

In recent years, there has been an unprecedented surge in the usage of risk management practices, with the Value-at-Risk (VaR)-based risk management emerging as the industry standard by choice or by regulation (Jorion, 1997). As a risk management technique, VaR describes the maximum loss that can occur over a given period, at a given confidence level, to a given portfolio due to exposure to market risk. It is a measure of potential loss, where the potential loss is linked directly to the probability of occurrence of large adverse movement in the market prices.

VaR models have been sanctioned for determining market risk capital requirements for large banks by US and international banking authorities through the 1996 Market Risk Amendment to the Basle Accord. Securities and Exchange Commission has also required different financial structures, including banks and other large-capitalization registrants, to quantify and report their market-risk exposure with VaR disclosure being one measure in order to comply. In 1993, Group of Thirty (G30) also endorsed VaR as part of `best practices' for dealing with derivatives. Spurred by all these developments, VaR has become a standard measure of financial market risk that is increasingly used by other financial and even non-financial firms as well.

 
 
 

Applied Finance Journal, Value-at-Risk, VaR, Mutual Funds, Indian Securities Market, Risk Management, Securities and Exchange Commission, International Banking System, Risk Management Technique, Statistical Techniques, Delta-Gamma Models, Market Behavior, Securities Analysis.