In an article published in The Analyst in March 2006, I stood alone
among a group of six automotive experts and declared that GM would
go bankrupt by the end of 2007. As a resident of Michigan, the home of GM
and the US auto industry, I am glad I was off by a year and five months.
Clearly, US leaders needed the extra time to prepare for the one state
depression that is unfolding now. In 1978, GM employed more than
482,000 Michigan residents. Today, it is less than 50,000. Yes, in the good old
days, GM stood atop the Fortune 500. Today, the US and Canadian governments
own 70% of its stock, and American taxpayers will invest almost $50 bn in its
rescue plan.
President Obama has declared, "I am absolutely confident, if
well-managed, the new GM will emerge." However, nothing wounded goes uphill,
and neither will GM, even though it has purportedly `freed' itself by declaring
bankruptcy. Unfortunately, the company can't free itself from its history or
the oncoming tragedy of its future.
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