This paper analyses the determinants of fixed investment in the Indian Private
Corporate Manufacturing sector for the period 1973-2002, using Annual Survey
of Industries Data. It is argued that economic policy of a nation is crucial in
determining the investment behavior in developing countries rather than the
traditional factors like output and profit. Against the background of the
financial sector deregulation initiated in India since 1991, this study makes an
attempt to analyze whether the traditional factors or the economic policy
variables plays a major role in determining investment behavior. A reduced
form equation derived from the neoclassical investment theory is used for the
empirical analysis. Financial Liberalization Index is constructed for India for
the analysis. The results show that, the traditional determinants like output
and profit still plays a major role in determining corporate investment rather
than the policy variables. Though aggregate financial liberalization and more
prominently domestic financial liberalization produced an environment
conducive for investment, it could not succeed in creating a sustained increase
in capital formation in the post-reform period. In other words, firms consider
the demand factor, internal liquidity position and past investment decisions
etc., as the major indicators for future investment. The only index which shows
strong positive association with corporate investment is index of money market
liberalization. It is also found that there is significant negative association
between index of capital account liberalization and corporate investment. The
negative and significant relationship with index of capital account
liberalization and investment raises many concerns over the credibility of
external (international) financial reforms.
The empirical literature on economic growth consistently showed that the rate of
accumulation of physical capital or investment is an important determinant of economic
growth. More importantly, in developing countries, as evidenced by many studies, it is the
private investment that plays a greater role than pubic investment in determining economic
growth1. The studies on the determinants of private investment in developing countries,
against the traditional theories of investment, focused on the role of government policy andtried to derive an explicit relationship between the principal policy instruments and private
investment (Blejer and Khan, 1994; Guncavdi et. al., 1998; Sioum, 2002). Recent theoretical
and empirical studies have produced results consistent with the idea that the economic policy
of a nation is crucial in determining the domestic investment behavior (Blejer and Khan,
1994, Greene and Villaneuva, 1991, Sioum, 2002, de Melo and Tybout, 1990). These studies
emphasized the role of financial sector development on private investment and provide a
framework for understanding the effects of changes in economic policies on private
investment. |