Article Details
  • Published Online:
    October  2025
  • Product Name:
    The IUP Journal of Applied Finance
  • Product Type:
    Article
  • Product Code:
    IJAF021225
  • DOI:
    10.71329/IUPJAF/2025.31.4.24-61
  • Author Name:
    J Madegowda
  • Availability:
    YES
  • Subject/Domain:
    Finance
  • Download Format:
    PDF
  • Pages:
    24-61
Volume 31, Issue 4, October-December 2025
On the Road to Insolvency? A Predictive Study of Financial Distress in Karnataka’s Public Transport Corporations
Abstract

State-owned road transport undertakings are vital public utilities that ensure affordable, equitable, and accessible mobility across India. Karnataka’s four transport corporations—BMTC, KKRTC, KSRTC, and NWKRTC— have, in recent years, faced mounting financial stress, raising concerns about their operational sustainability and service continuity. This study evaluates the fiscal health of these corporations over eight years (2016-17 to 2023-24) using two established insolvency prediction models: the Altman Z''-score and the Ohlson O-score. Through longitudinal analysis, the study identifies persistent patterns of financial distress and stratifies risk exposure across entities. The findings reveal that none of the corporations fall within the financial “safe” zone, with KKRTC and NWKRTC exhibiting chronic distress. Beyond diagnosing fiscal fragility, the study underscores deeper structural inefficiencies—including persistent cost-revenue imbalances and limited revenue diversification—while acknowledging the indispensable social mission these entities fulfill. Rather than advocating commercial profitability, the paper proposes a pragmatic framework where predictive financial tools inform evidence-based reforms, targeted state support, and sustainable service delivery. The analysis offers actionable insights for policymakers striving to safeguard the viability of essential public transport without compromising its core commitment to social equity and access.

Introduction

Public transport plays a crucial role in ensuring equitable mobility, particularly in developing regions where private vehicle ownership remains limited. In the Indian context, state road transport undertakings (SRTUs or SRTCs) have long served as the backbone of intercity and intracity travel for millions.